The 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

August 12, 2009

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Every year, technology research house, Gartner releases what is known as a “hype cycle” – rating the expectations behind each maturing technology against their usefulness/adoption within business. It shows how technologies move through the initial spurt (technology trigger), through the peak of inflated expectations (can anyone say “Twitter”), through the trough of disillusionment, into to the slope of enlightenment and finally, the plateau of productivity and mainstream adoption.

This year is no different (see the graphic below)and an insightful write-up of the part of this year’s Gartner Hype Cycle which focuses on social media can be found on ReadWriteWeb.

It is interesting to note that Twitter, or more generally speaking “microblogging”, is falling from the peak of inflated expectations and into the trough of disillusionment. It is great to see corporate blogging moving up the slope of enlightenment and is predicted to reach mainstream adoption in “less than two years”. Personally I am surprised to see online video on the downward slope to to the trough of disillusionment and that it is being outstripped by public virtual worlds in the “race” to mainstream adoption.

It is also interesting to see what is moving up the peak of inflated expectations. Augmented reality is a very cool technology which you can see in action below.

Mobile robots sound very cool and Internet TV could make advertising far more interactive and contextually relevant – imagine watching a Liverpool match and being flashed an ad to buy a Fernando Torres shirt after he scores another screamer…and it being one click away on your remote. You can insert your own preferred sport/team ;-)

Most importantly of all for com.motion and our clients, the “Web 2.0” or social media phenomenon is rated as moving into the slope of enlightenment and that it will be adopted by the mainstream in less than two years. Judging by the exciting and innovative technologies on the hype cycle, we are in for an exciting time!

More on the Gartner Hype Cycle for consultants and agencies.

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2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

August 12, 2009

Cross posted from the com.motion blog.

Every year, technology research house, Gartner releases what is known as a “hype cycle” – rating the expectations behind each maturing technology against their usefulness/adoption within business. It shows how technologies move through the initial spurt (technology trigger), through the peak of inflated expectations (can anyone say “Twitter”), through the trough of disillusionment, into to the slope of enlightenment and finally, the plateau of productivity and mainstream adoption.

This year is no different (see the graphic below)and an insightful write-up of the part of this year’s Gartner Hype Cycle which focuses on social media can be found on ReadWriteWeb.

image

It is interesting to note that Twitter, or more generally speaking “microblogging”, is falling from the peak of inflated expectations and into the trough of disillusionment. It is great to see corporate blogging moving up the slope of enlightenment and is predicted to reach mainstream adoption in “less than two years”. Personally I am surprised to see online video on the downward slope to to the trough of disillusionment and that it is being outstripped by public virtual worlds in the “race” to mainstream adoption.

It is also interesting to see what is moving up the peak of inflated expectations. Augmented reality is a very cool technology which you can see in action below.

Mobile robots sound very cool and Internet TV could make advertising far more interactive and contextually relevant – imagine watching a Liverpool match and being flashed an ad to buy a Fernando Torres shirt after he scores another screamer…and it being one click away on your remote. You can insert your own preferred sport/team ;-)

Most importantly of all for com.motion and our clients, the “Web 2.0” or social media phenomenon is rated as moving into the slope of enlightenment and that it will be adopted by the mainstream in less than two years. Judging by the exciting and innovative technologies on the hype cycle, we are in for an exciting time!

More on the Gartner Hype Cycle for consultants and agencies.


I’m a Twitter snob too!

May 5, 2008

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Twitter is a complete time-sink with very few business applications (that I can see) but it is a whole lot of fun.

As a result, I’m spending more and more of my time over on my Twitter account where I, in no particular order:

  • Post interesting links
  • Talk about pop culture
  • Give some sort of commentary on how my beloved Liverpool are doing (including “breaking” the Twitter formatting with 140 character long celebrations. no spaces.)
  • Banter with my online friends and colleagues
  • Ask for (and sometimes even get) stats/research/examples/lunch suggestions

http://www.tvangler.com/photos/snob.jpgBut I’m a snob. I follow people I find interesting and who I want to stay connected with. I try to keep the people I’m following to under 100 and I don’t follow other people just so they’ll follow me back.

For some reason, about 500 people have signed up to see what’s up in my life – which is a bit confusing/disconcerting. I’m not even interesting enough for my wife to want to know what’s going on with me, or even, and this is depressing, when Liverpool score.

I’m flattered by the attention and I do click through to every new follower’s profile to see who they are and whether I want to follow them. For me, following them is a completely arbitrary decision based on any number of utterly subjective factors most of which are probably too facile to even consider codifying.

However, if you really, really, really do want me to follow you, all’s not lost. Twitter means you can see what I’m doing and by inserting the simple “@edlee” you can direct your update/message/link to me. It’s a conversation, so let’s converse!

I’ve started following a good few people this way and uncovered some interesting people this way – it’s just that I won’t follow people just because they follow me. Sorry.

More on being a Twitter Snob

Mitch Joel is a Twitter snob.

This guy’s Twitter etiquette is absurd.

Does Twitter have business benefits?

Colin Carmichael can see the business benefits of Twitter. I can see the business benefit of having a “status” (a la Facebook) associated with your bio/contact details within your company’s intranet but,I can’t see the conversational nature of Twitter, specifically, scaling very well – especially in an organization as large as Fleishman-Hillard (c2,600 employees). For my money, all the “@s” would render such a system utterly useless – I’d look up what a colleague in London or Hong Kong was doing, to see whether I could call them and see them deep in a conversation with another colleague about whether, for example, Peep Show is better than Big Train or the Mighty Boosh.

[Disclosure, Super Channel, the TV network that carries Peep Show in Canada is a client][Double disclosure, Peep Show >>> Big Train]

Not so useful as seeing a Facebook style status update – Ed’s colleague is on vacation rather than getting an erstwhile Out Of Office notification.

However, as with all new social media, Twitter is worth following – or at least monitoring.

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User Generated Content: Be Careful What You Wish For

April 14, 2008

Engagement is a good thing. Having the 1 per cent of your passionate customers submit content for your brand is a good thing.

But, as many things social media related, these good things come with a caveat emptor: buyer beware. After all, when it comes to UGC, you get what you pay for.

Take Sky News back in the U.K.. What better way to add context and texture to an already engaging event like the London Marathon than to ask your viewers/readers to submit their photos from around the 26.2 mile course.

Well, not clicking on “approve” on every photo that comes in while preswatching the (enthralling) Liverpool vs. Blackburn and Man. Utd. vs. Arsenal matches would be a good start.

Check out some of the worst offenders I noticed while clicking though today:

Clunge

(Check out the banner on the bridge)

Death

(Erm, do you see something that’s inappropriately out of place)

Bill Murray

(Can you spot a certain movie star?)

Tron

(Not out of the realms of probability, but I doubt the Tron dude is going to be watching the London Marathon)

Just another warning that while there is always the 1 per cent of passionate users who will willingly create content and drive the conversation forward, there will be a greater or equal amount of people willing to mess about with the cool tools you’re using and to abuse the trust you’re putting in them.


Crack Cocaine for Social Media Junkies

July 17, 2007

A few quick hits of Public Relations / Communications / Social Media related nonsense:

Ghost blogging is legitimate! The BBC say so! What’s more, you can earn some $700 (CDN) editing someone’s Facebook / LinkedIN / Myspace profile. Or writing someone’s blog. Eurgh, I feel dirty. Richard also saw this.

Ghost blogging may be on the way in, but leaving anonymous comments on the Interweb pumping your company’s stock price (and your own haircut) is still a big fat no-no, as Whole Foods CEO John Mackey found out.

Media training 101 – forget media training. My favourite footballer, Jamie Carragher made a shed load more fans when he phoned up a talk radio “shock jock” who accused him of being a bottler after Carragher retired from international football. He spoke from the heart and, while the offer to settle things like gentlemen may not be the best tactic for your client, he earned a lot of respect for his candor and passion.

…and finally, old client Weblo (remember this?) just raised another $3m in venture financing. Venturebeat calls it a “pyramid scheme” but I see it as a search engine play. Users create the most compelling profiles for key properties (California, Jenna Jameson etc) and then Weblo hopes it gets a high search engine ranking in Google etc. Once the traffic comes in, monetise away through contextual ads. Think Squidoo but with the ability to sell your profile or Mahalo with more user input.


Thursday Questions

March 1, 2007

I’m feeling a little existential today so here’s a stream of consiousness of what I’m asking people around the office. Feel free to chime in in the comments.

Are Take That really about to have another UK number one “hit”?

What will the Liverpool vs. Man. Utd. result be on Saturday? Should I wake up at 7:30 or stay in bed?

It’s not the despair that kills me, it’s the hope.

**UPDATE** Liverpool lost 1-0 after completely dominating the match and having enough chances to win three games. I’m angry but if it means we go through on Tuesday against Barcelona, I’ll take my medicine and shut up…

**UPDATE 2** Liverpool lost 1-0 after completely dominating the match and having enough chances to win three games. I’m over the moon as we went through against Barcelon thanks to a truly fantastic effort in the first leg (2-1 away from home) that meant even a 1-0 loss meant we went through on the “away goals count double” rule.  Suddenly Saturday’s loss doesn’t seem that bad…

Is it true that for every 1% of broadband growth, newspaper circulation drops 0.2%? I read it in Popbitch so it must be true.

What’s the right way to use a note book?

I just got a new Moleskin and want to get off on the right foot. Do you take notes throughout and then transfer the actions to the back? Do you keep your action items on one page and actions you’ve delegated (up, down or sideways) on another? Or do you mix up notes, actions and doodles like some sort of pot pourri? Enquiring minds want to know.

Is the most effective thing you can do the most unexpected?

Playing football last night I saw people did better when they did the things that weren’t expected of them – defenders attacking and attackers dropping back. If you’re a defensive worker (responding to requests) should you go on a charge and start leading your team? If you’re a forged-in-the-fire type leader, why not take a step back and see what your team’s capable of. You may be surprised.

What’s the best way to use a wiki in a corporate sense?

I don’t think they’re any good for short, intense bursts of collaboration such as crisis messaging or for huge groups. Multiple people will be making simultaneous changes which can screw the document up. However, I can see wiki’s being really good for long-slow burn type of projects where everyone has ownership of a specific part – team to do lists, proposals, editorial calendars


Toronto FC

December 12, 2006

I’m a huge football fan so when I heard Toronto was getting its own MLS franchise team I was delighted. When I heard they were doing open tryouts I thought my head would explode with dreams of finally making it as a professional athlete.

Not making it in any way as an amateur athlete was a big problem to overcome.

However, those dreams are now shattered as I found out that tryouts start on the day I leave for Calgary for the rest of the year (December 18) and all 1000 spots have been filled!

In all seriousness, I’ll be following the marketing activities of Toronto FC (that’s Football Club; not Soccer Club…) with great interest. Toronto has a thriving grass roots football community and I’m hoping TFC can bring the beautiful game into the mainstream consciousness.

I’m not saying it’ll overtake Ice Hockey as one of the national sports but given the right players and a favourable opening season, it’ll be interesting to see how Torontonians, and Canadians, react to the team.

From a website consultant point of view, it’s interesting to note that all MLS teams websites are hosted on the MLS website and don’t have standalone sites. To me, this represents a huge problem as a qualified Google search for “major league soccer” in Canada only, won’t turn up TFC

Given the MLS is trying to break a new market in Canada, it’d make sense, to me, if they gave the new franchise a seperate identity which in today’s day and age starts with a seperate Web site. A Web site that the iStudio team would be delighted to help out with!

Maybe I can get on the team after all…

Apropos of football, here’s a YouTube of Liverpool spanking Fulham 4-0 from Saturday.

If you’re reading this in a feedreader, click here to view. Worth sticking around for a great freekick from Mark Gonzalez.


If only…

November 14, 2006

*UPDATE at the end*

This is a purely self-indulgent sporting post that focuses on football, and more specifically, Liverpool. PR, interactive and social media related programming will be resumed later today.

However, I can’t sit silently following as painful a defeat as Sunday’s against Arsenal.

Liverpool, the club I’ve supported for more than twenty years, are now sitting nineth in the premiership with 17 points from 12 matches. However, this belies their quite abysmal away form which has seen the team register just one point from a possible 15 – and that was an opening day of the season draw against surefire relegation candidates Sheffield Utd.

Why have the former champions of Europe (2004/5 season) performed so poorly this year? A 3-0 loss to arch-rivals Everton in the Merseyside derby was particularly painful, as was the spineless 2-0 drubbing by our nemisis, Manchester Utd. The heartbreaking 1-0 loss to championship favourites Chelsea was down to a wunder-goal from a renaissent Didier Drogba, and the 2-0 defeat at the hands of Bolton can be put down to shoddy refereeing and bad luck.

Bad luck, it seems, can be blamed for so many decisions in sport – especially in games decided at the margins. However this would ignore a root cause.

The players have lost self-belief that they can win against the big teams. Last season Liverpool consistently lost points to our rivals in the “big four” (Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal) while dominating, to an extent, the smaller teams. Flat track bully is what we’d be called in the cricketing world.

The back four of Riise, Hyypia, Carragher and Finnan are looking stale. Riise and Carra (who’s number 23 I have on my football top) are still performing well, but Hyypia has lost another yard of pace and get’s drawn out of position too easily. One pundit described him as having the turning circle of a battleship, and I would suggest he has the acceleration of one too. The two factors, dwinderling pace and poor positioning, mean that too much pressure is on his centre-back partner. Carragher would run himself into the ground each and every game, such is his commitment to the Liverpool cause, but even he can’t stem the tide without help.

Like the once-dominant Finn, Steve Finnan is also on a downward slide. His attacking instincts, once so prevalent at Fulham have been muted and his confidence on the ball is waning to an extent that he consistently cuts back to his left, and weaker, foot to cross the ball. In an age where the full-back is expected to support the winger, overlapping down the touchline, this means the momentum is taken out the attacking move.

The strikers can no longer charge into the box but need to run, check and go again, meaning any advantage from their movement is severely negated. The supporting midfielders must also show more restraint and are forced to make later and later runs into the penalty box.

Finnan and Hyypia have been great servants for the club but to move forward, to evolve, to win championships, we need to thank them for their service and move on. A more modern right back, a more mobile centre back. We already have Daniel Agger ready to step into the defence with Jamie Carragher and Sunday’s substitution, Agger for Hyypia in the 82nd minute may have signalled the changing of the guard.

In midfield there is a conundrum. Steven Gerrard, the club captain, shining star and a member of the world elite is being played out of position on the right wing. In the heart of midfield is the precocious pairing of Xabi Alonso (24) and Momo Sissoko (just 21). Out of the three, only Gerrard is equiped to play on the right, and if you look at the possible replacements for the right wing, I feel his sacrifice is a worthwhile one. The position is, after all, what you make of it.

Gerrard has a tendancy to be either totally dominant or to go missing during games. When he’s at his marauding best he’ll shrug off the defender and surge past them on the outside or cut inside, leaving the defender in his wake and often on their weaker foot. Again, to do either of these, he needs support from the right back position.

On the left wing, we’re stuggling for consistency. The Brazilian Fabio Aurelio looked good at the start of the season but is now injured. The much-heralded Mark Gonzalez seems to be struggling with the physicality of the English game and seems to have shrunk a few inches since his last season in Spain while Luis Garcia shifts from a genius at Anfield to a passenger away from our fortress.

Up front, the usually snarling, bristling Craig Bellamy, a 7million pound signing, is struggling with his form – a missed penalty against Birmingham last week would suggest not even he knows where his next goal is coming from. However Peter Crouch and Dirk Kuyt are forming a potent strike partnership, where Kuyt’s irrepressible energy is in stark contrast with former Kop here, Robbie Fowler who desperately needs some games before he is full match fit.

So what would I do, “if only” I was Rafa Benitez.

There are two things. The first would be a temporary switch to a 3-5-2 formation with Carragher, Hyypia and Agger in the back and Riise, Alonso, Sissoko, Gerrard and one from Pennant, Gonzalez or Garcia on the right wing. Crouch and Kuyt woud stay up front with Bellamy an option on the bench as an impact sub.

The three at the back would allow Agger to be gradually promoted to first team regular as well as take some pressure off Hyypia and, by extension, Carra. Agger would also provide some much needed quality on the ball – something that has been lacking with Sami “Hoof-ia” or Jamie Carragher who, for all his qualities, has never been all that comfortable with the ball at his feet.

In midfield you have your strongest three players, the core of the team, the future of the club. It also means there are two players with attacking instincts available to overload on the fullbacks. The packed midfield allows us to play to our strengths while covering our weaknesses. If the defence is underpressure, Riise can drop back to left back while Agger can slide to a nominal right back, protected by Steven Gerrard and/or the right winger.

Unfortunately, Momo is injured for the next three months but Bolo Zenden proved at Boro he is more than capable of being one of the central three.

The second would be to venture into the transfer marke. I’d buy an attacking right back in the Lauren/ Eboue/ Chimbonda mould and a rightwinger. Pennant is not, on current form, up to scratch as a Liverpool player and I’d rather spend some serious money on someone like Alves, who we were linked to in the summer.

My two cents.

Additional resources -

The Liverpool Way

Koptalk Insider

Anfield Road

*UPDATE* Interesting; Liverpool won 1-0 today playing a 3-4-1-2 formation (a variation of the 3-5-2 I advocated in this post). Does this make me a footballing genius? No. But it will be interesting to note if Toronto FC are looking for a new manager. Call me!


My weekend woes

October 23, 2006

Things I meant to do this weekend:

  • Get lenses put into my new glasses
  • Write a review of Blink (here’s an abridged version – loved it)
  • Write a posting regarding my new job in the FH family
  • Call parents, grandmother and friends in UK
  • Grocery shopping
  • Watch Liverpool hammer Man Utd (unfortunately they turned in a hopelessly inept display and were soundly beaten)
  • Edit comments from Jaffe et al into coherent blog posting (on hold until they actually comment!)
  • Pick up iPod from footy buddy

Here’s what I actually did:

  • Wear sweats, rugby shirt, hooded top (hood up), hat, neck warmer
  • Lie on sofa wrapped up in blanket and above watching sports
  • Drink litres of hot Ribena and honey, neo-citron and water
  • Eat packets of Ricola honey, lemon and Echinacea
  • Complain at every opportunity about David Jones infecting me and the rest of the office with his flu
  • Sleep

Thankfully I left work early on Friday and didn’t pass it on so there is a valuable lesson here.  Nobody needs a hero.  If you’re sick, bugger off and let everyone else get on with things.


Care and feeding of the comments section

September 27, 2006

It’s Wednesday so it must be a post about sports. I’ve been reading the, always appallingly edited, Grauniad’s sports website since I came to Canada. The Guardian has traditionally been on the forefront of social media in the UK’s MSM (mainstream media) scene with RSS feeds a-go-go, a great technology section, the always excellent Media Guardian and a nice good sprinkling of blog type functionality.

However the last couple of blog articles I’ve read about my beloved Liverpool FC have been very badly received with the writers of “The cult of permanent rotation blights Benítez’s bid for title” (Richard Williams) and now “Benitez aims to rediscover Reds’ goal scoring touch” (Dominic Field) taking a whole load of flack in the comments section.

Williams was derided as “asinine” (steved) “sloppy” (ianx66) and “lazy” (JohnMcGeechan2) while Field took the heat for being “rubbish” (monkeycircus) “ignorant” (HiTs) and for writing the “most obvious stories and superficial, unresearched nonsense” (RobbieB).

I know that sports can be an emotive business and if the articles were written to stimulate conversation, click-throughs and ad-revenue, I can sort of understand them, but I can’t understand why the authors have felt the need to stay out of the comment section.

A simple “you make some good points but here’s why I said what I did” rebuttal would be a much more open and transparent way of further engaging the audience. I know how I felt when I wrote an email to both John Moore (CFRB) and Cathal Kelly (Toronto Star) about a disagreement I had with their positions and both took the time to reply – the same applies for people who comment; they want to be answered and to be included.

I reply personally to most commenters – and always to first time commenters – because this blog isn’t just about me, it’s about you as well. Hence the name. I hope that this small touch isn’t just polite, it helps to foster some sense of community as well.

All that besides, here’s to hoping that Rafa’s Reds do indeed rediscover their scoring touch (five in the last two games is a decent tally though) and that his rotation policy doesn’t blight the mighty Pool’s Premiership ambitions (he won the Primera League, and Champions League with a similar policy…).

*UPDATE* - Eight mins in and Liverpool are 1-0 up thanks to Crouch, one of the players Rafa “rotated” into the starting eleven. So much for all that nonsense.

*UPDATE 2* – Then there were two. Garcia knocks in another European goal and Liverpool are 2-0 up after less than 15 mins.

*UPDATE 3* – Just to put it all to bed, Crouchinho scores his second, Liverpool’s third with a sensational overhead kick.  Not a bad touch for a big man….

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